Trump's Crypto Crusade: A Bold Push for National Digital Asset Reserves

　　In a surprising move on the evening of March 2nd, former President Donald Trump took to his official social media platform to announce a significant shift in U.S. cryptocurrency policy. He declared that, following years of what he termed "corrupt attacks" by the Biden administration, the United States would elevate its position in the critical cryptocurrency industry. Trump's proposed "Digital Asset Executive Order" would direct a presidential task force to advance a strategic reserve including cryptocurrencies such as XRP, SOL, and ADA. He vowed to ensure that the U.S. becomes the global capital of cryptocurrency, echoing his famous campaign slogan, "We are making America great again!"

　　In a subsequent post, Trump emphasized that Bitcoin (BTC) and Ethereum (ETH), along with other valuable cryptocurrencies, would form the core of this reserve. He expressed personal optimism about the future of both Bitcoin and Ethereum.

　　A notable incident occurred in the wake of Trump's announcement. According to ai_9684xtpa monitoring, a major whale who had leveraged 50x on BTC and ETH on Hyperliquid nearly liquidated their position, retaining only 30.92 coins. Within 24 hours, they reportedly profited $6.83 million and withdrew $12.85 million in USDC back to the Arbitrum network, raising suspicions of insider trading. However, Coinbase executive Conor clarified that the funds originated from phishing activities and that the individual was a high-stakes player on Roobet. The whale had liquidated their long positions before Trump's second announcement, missing out on potential millions in profits. In reality, they were merely a gambler using stolen funds, not someone with insider information.

　　Alex Xu, a research partner at Mint Ventures, analyzed the situation, noting that SOL, XRP, and ADA had been actively courting Trump since his presidency, providing substantial public sponsorships such as donations to his inauguration fund. Xu suggested that private, indirect benefits were likely even more significant. Trump's recent announcement could be seen as a public reciprocation, offering a presidential "advertisement slot." However, Xu cautioned that including ADA and XRP in the reserve could undermine the seriousness of BTC's strategic reserve, potentially reducing the likelihood of federal-level BTC reserve legislation. While the task force's work is one thing, successful legislation is another, especially given the Republican Party's slim majority in the House. The only feasible path might be for Trump to establish a Treasury-managed sovereign wealth fund, bypassing federal legislation to purchase these assets. But the likelihood of this remains uncertain, as Trump typically prefers low-cost, high-impact maneuvers rather than high-risk, low-reward endeavors.

　　Cobo founder Shenyu expressed optimism about market development, predicting that clarity and potential approval of national reserve matters in the U.S. could lead to significant capital inflows into the industry by the second half of the year, particularly between June and October. However, in the short to medium term, application-level issues remain unresolved, and there is no substantial influx of external funds. Shenyu's expectations are thus focused on the latter part of the year, contingent on progress in U.S. national reserve matters.

　　Earlier, Alex Xu had analyzed the U.S. national cryptocurrency reserve, noting that BTC reserve legislation is advancing at both state and federal levels. Approximately 25 states have proposed BTC reserve bills, representing half of the total states, while federal-level legislation has been prepared since last year and is currently in the hearing preparation stage.

　　The passage of BTC reserve legislation, which would include BTC in major government asset reserves, is a key narrative for long-term BTC market optimism. This would not only introduce U.S. government purchasing power but also set a precedent for other nations' reserve decisions. For instance, the Czech Central Bank governor has previously considered including BTC in national reserves, while Japan's former Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba cited the U.S.'s ongoing discussions as a reason for Japan's hesitation.

　　However, the progress of BTC reserve legislation in the U.S. appears less promising. Four states—Montana, North Dakota, South Dakota, and Ohio—have already rejected or refused BTC reserve bills. Notably, these are all Republican-dominated states, including Ohio, home to federal Senator Cynthia Lummis, a major proponent of national BTC reserve legislation. The reasons for rejection vary, but concerns over BTC's volatility, as expressed by Ohio's State Treasury Chief Investment Officer Patrick Fleming, highlight the challenges. Fleming, a crypto supporter, opposed the bill due to BTC's significant price swings, which he deemed unsuitable for state government investment portfolios.

　　Given these hurdles, the path to federal-level BTC reserve legislation is even more daunting. The rejection of state-level bills could influence federal lawmakers, potentially swaying those initially supportive of national reserve legislation. While some states, like Utah, Arizona, and Oklahoma, are making progress with their BTC reserve bills, the overall outlook remains uncertain. The initial optimism of crypto investment firms like VanEck, which predicted over $20 billion in BTC purchases following state-level bill approvals, now seems overly optimistic. The final number of states that will pass such legislation remains to be seen.

　　In conclusion, while Trump's push for a national cryptocurrency reserve has sparked significant interest, the road to actual implementation is fraught with challenges. The interplay of state and federal politics, coupled with the inherent volatility of cryptocurrencies, makes the realization of this vision far from certain.